| topic | note |
|---|---|
| UN SIDS count | UN-OHRLLS lists 39 economies under Small Island Developing States. Of these, 37 are UN General Assembly member states; Cook Islands and Niue are sovereign states in free association with New Zealand and are not UNGA members but ARE included on the SIDS list. |
| Bahrain (BHR) | Was previously on some UN SIDS lists as an AIMS economy. As of the current UN-OHRLLS list (retrieved November 2026), Bahrain is not listed as a SIDS. Not included in the candidate universe. |
| Associate Members | The 18 associate members listed by UN-OHRLLS are territories and dependencies that are associate members of UN Regional Commissions. They are included in the SIDS group but are not sovereign states. Not all have WDI coverage. |
| BES | Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba are Dutch special municipalities. Not on the UN-OHRLLS list. Retained in the candidate universe as an other island economy for regional completeness. No WDI coverage and does not contribute to any analytical sample. |
| Data authority | UN-OHRLLS list of SIDS, retrieved November 2026. URL: https://www.un.org/ohrlls/content/list-sids |
Data Dictionary
Sources, Indicators, Coverage, and Limitations
Tourism Indicators
OWID International Visitor Spending (% of GDP)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Short name | OWID visitor spending |
| Variable name in analysis | visitor_spend_gdp_pct, baseline vspend_mean_1519 / vspend_mean_1719 |
| Definition | Money received by the destination country from foreign visitors, including spending on accommodation, food, transport, entertainment, shopping, and fares paid to the country’s own airlines, expressed as a percentage of GDP |
| Units | Percent of GDP |
| Source | UN Tourism (2025); National statistical organizations and central banks, OECD national accounts, and World Bank staff estimates (2026) — processed by Our World in Data |
| OWID variable ID | 1146095 |
| Date range | 1995–2024 |
| Coverage | ~200 countries/territories |
| Raw file | data/raw/spending-by-international-visitors-while-visiting-a-country-as-a-share-of-gdp/ |
| Retrieved | January 2026 |
This indicator does not correspond to a single WDI indicator code. The numerator (international tourism receipts) comes from UN Tourism statistics collected through annual questionnaires following the International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics (IRTS 2008). The denominator (GDP) comes from World Bank national accounts estimates. Do not attribute this indicator to ST.INT.XPND.GD.ZS or any other unverified WDI code.
Distinction from tourism direct GDP: Visitor spending captures money spent by foreign visitors in a country. This is not equivalent to tourism’s direct contribution to GDP. A dollar spent by a visitor does not translate into a dollar of domestic value added — a portion flows to imported goods and services. Tourism direct GDP (SDG 8.9.1) measures the domestic value-added component only; it is a smaller number and requires Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) methodology to calculate.
Use in analysis: Primary pre-pandemic tourism-dependence indicator. 2015–2019 five-year means used as the primary baseline; 2017–2019 three-year means used as a sensitivity comparison.
OWID Tourism Contribution to GDP (Tourism Direct GDP)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Short name | OWID tourism GDP |
| Variable name | tourism_gdp_pct, baseline tgdp_mean_1719 |
| Definition | Tourism Direct GDP as a share of total GDP. Measures the value created when visitors spend money in the country, expressed as gross value added by all industries serving visitors, plus net taxes on goods and services tourists buy. Tracks SDG 8.9.1. |
| Units | Percent of GDP |
| Source | UN Tourism (2025) via Our World in Data |
| Methodology | Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). Countries without a TSA are absent from this dataset — coverage gaps reflect institutional capacity, not absence of tourism. |
| Date range | 2008–2023 |
| Coverage | ~125 countries with TSA data |
| Raw file | data/raw/tourism-gdp-proportion-of-total-gdp/ |
Not used as primary indicator in this analysis due to substantially lower coverage (15 of 29 OWID shock sample members have TSA data, vs. 29/29 for the visitor spending indicator). Used as a complementary measure in coverage audits.
OWID International Tourist Arrivals
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Short name | Tourist arrivals |
| Variable name | arrivals |
| Definition | Annual number of trips by visitors arriving from abroad who stay overnight |
| Units | Count of arrivals |
| Source | UN Tourism (2025) via Our World in Data |
| Date range | 1995–2024 |
| Raw file | data/raw/international-tourist-trips/ |
This is a volume measure, not an economic dependence indicator. It does not appear in the primary shock regression. It is included in the data for contextual reference.
WDI International Tourism Receipts (% of Total Exports)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Short name | WDI tourism receipts |
| WDI code | ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
| Variable name | tourism_receipts_pct_exports, baseline receipts_mean_1519 / receipts_mean_1719 |
| Definition | International tourism receipts as a percentage of total exports of goods and services. Tourism receipts include any payments made to the destination country by tourists for accommodation, food, transport, entertainment, and shopping during their visit. |
| Units | Percent of total exports |
| Source | World Development Indicators, World Bank |
| Date range | ~1995–2020 in this retrieval (no observations beyond 2020) |
| Coverage | ~180 countries |
| Retrieved via | wbstats::wb_data(), November 2026 |
Note on availability: this series ends at 2020 in the current retrieval. WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS contains no observations beyond 2020 in the November 2026 retrieval. The most likely explanation is a change in UN Tourism’s data dissemination approach following the pandemic — much of UN Tourism’s current reporting has moved to interactive data portals — rather than a simple publication lag. The WDI series may no longer be actively updated. Additionally, 2019 data is missing for 14 of 35 WDI shock-sample members — their 2017–2019 baseline is computed from 2017 and 2018 only. Users requiring post-pandemic tracking of tourism receipts should consult the UN Tourism data portal directly.
Distinction from OWID visitor spending: Both series ultimately draw on UN Tourism receipts data, but:
- The denominator differs: OWID uses GDP; WDI uses total exports of goods and services.
- Their magnitudes and rankings differ accordingly: for export-intensive micro-states, the receipts/exports ratio can be very large; for larger, more diversified economies, it can be small.
- The two series are correlated (Pearson r ≈ 0.77, Spearman ρ ≈ 0.86 across the common sample) but not interchangeable.
Use in analysis: Complementary indicator. Used in WDI shock sample (N=35) and common-sample comparison alongside OWID visitor spending.
Economic Outcome and Recovery Indicators
WDI GDP Growth (Annual %)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| WDI code | NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG |
| Variable name | gdp_growth_pct |
| Definition | Annual percentage change in real GDP (GDP at constant 2015 prices) |
| Units | Percent |
| Source | World Development Indicators, World Bank |
| Use | Primary shock outcome: gdp_growth_pct_2020 |
WDI Real GDP (Constant 2015 USD)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| WDI code | NY.GDP.MKTP.KD |
| Variable name | gdp_real_const2015usd |
| Definition | GDP measured in constant 2015 US dollars, adjusting for inflation |
| Units | Constant 2015 USD |
| Source | World Development Indicators, World Bank |
| Use | Primary recovery measure; denominator for 2019=100 index |
| Coverage (shock sample) | 2015–2022: N=29; 2023–2024: N=28; 2025: N=22 (preliminary) |
WDI Real GDP Per Capita (Constant 2015 USD)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| WDI code | NY.GDP.PCAP.KD |
| Variable name | gdppc_real_const2015usd |
| Definition | GDP per capita in constant 2015 US dollars |
| Units | Constant 2015 USD per person |
| Source | World Development Indicators, World Bank |
| Use | Complementary recovery measure; distinguishes per-capita from aggregate recovery |
Why both matter: An economy can restore total real GDP while GDP per capita remains below 2019 levels if population has grown. By 2023, 19 of 28 shock-sample economies had recovered aggregate real GDP to 2019 levels; only 17 of 28 had recovered real GDP per capita.
WDI GDP Per Capita (Current USD) — Reference Only
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| WDI code | NY.GDP.PCAP.CD |
| Variable name | gdp_per_capita_usd |
| Use | Reference; not used for recovery comparisons due to inflation and exchange-rate confounding |
WDI Unemployment (% of Labor Force)
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| WDI code | SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS |
| Variable name | unemployment_pct |
| Notes | Sparse coverage for many Pacific micro-states; not used in primary analysis |
Processed Datasets
data/processed/candidates.csv
58-economy candidate universe. Fields: iso3, country, sids_region, sids_status, political_status, source, notes. Authority: UN-OHRLLS list of SIDS, November 2026.
data/processed/country_coverage.csv
Coverage matrix. One row per candidate (58 rows). Fields include observation counts for each indicator in the 2017–2019 window and binary sample-membership flags (in_primary_shock_sample, in_receipts_shock_sample, in_common_sample, in_recovery_sample).
data/processed/baseline_shock_recovery.csv
One row per economy that appears in the analytical panel (57 economies). Contains: 2015–2019 and 2017–2019 baseline means and observation counts for all tourism indicators; 2015–2025 wide-format columns for economic outcomes; sample membership flags. BES is absent because it has no data in any source.
data/processed/analytical_panel.csv
Long-format, unbalanced panel. 1,707 rows; 57 economies; years 1995–2025 (coverage varies by indicator and economy). All WDI and OWID indicators are present as columns; most rows have NA for at least some indicators. This is not a balanced panel: not every economy has observations for every year. Used as the primary input to baseline and recovery calculations. BES is absent (no data in any source).
data/processed/recovery_index.csv
Long-format recovery dataset for primary shock sample (N = 29), years 2015–2025. Contains gdp_index (real GDP, 2019 = 100) and gdppc_index (real GDP per capita, 2019 = 100). 2025 rows exist for 22 of 29 economies (preliminary estimates).
data/raw/worldbank/wdi_tourism_covid.csv
Raw WDI data retrieved via wbstats::wb_data(). Retrieved November 2026. Indicators: ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, NY.GDP.PCAP.KD, SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. Years: 2008–2025. 51 economies returned (7 candidate codes not recognized by the WB API: AIA, GLP, MTQ, MSR, BES, COK, NIU).
data/raw/worldbank/wdi_retrieval_metadata.txt
Records retrieval date, indicators requested, country codes requested, and codes returned/missing.
SIDS Classification
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